May 21 2008
Clinton in August, or Lose in November
Gregory may have been off on the margins, but he hit it straight with the 150,000 popular vote. Cumulatively, Clinton won 700,000 votes of yesterday’s 1,254,000 total, with Obama netting 553,000. That’s equivalent to winning one North Carolina by 16%. Clinton has won the popular in this Primary, regardless of the margin of her Puerto Rico win.
No one in the media looks bothered. What popular vote? Florida and Michigan don’t count. The Democratic party recognizes only 48 states of the Union. If you break fundamental Democratic rules, your punishment is total disenfranchisement. Hey, Obama is already the nominee, he is a few delegates away from securing a magic number all of his own making. Who needs Denver, its all over.
So goes the story, and with it the water and the baby, all together. Now for some reality.
Nothing Obama can do, will secure him the necessary pledged delegate vote of 2210 prior to August. 2210 is the number with which we started this Primary, and the number Howard Dean and Pelosi expect of any candidate nominated in Denver. Although the Obama camp has its hands in the Recreate 68 pot (no doubt also through Ayers, active in modern day SDS)- it is acting as if Denver did not exist. Since most Obama supporters are fresh off the College Assembly line, their impression that the Convention is irrelevant to the Nomination process, can be forgiven as simple ignorance promoted by their Messiah.
Nothing could be easier for Clinton, than preventing Obama from securing the Democratic Presidential nomination until Denver. She just has to hang around. Once in Denver, an hour is all that’s needed for unpledged delegates to cast their votes independently of the ever-present media pressure that currently holds the entire country hostage.
For a brief moment in time, these delegates will be insulated from the media in their Pepsi Center bunker in Colorado’s capital. By DNC rules they have the right to exercise their judgment as they see fit. Whatever the result of this judgment, it will be these delegates, and it will be in Denver in August, that the Presidential Nominee of the Democratic Party is selected.
In Denver, contrary to Obama hopes, the entire Florida and Michigan delegations will vote alongside their peers from 48 American states. This will dwindle Obama’s ostensible delegate lead to negligible numbers, and because the Party does take into account the nature of the Caucus system vs a Popular Vote when considering General Election strategy, Clinton’s popular vote lead outside without the Caucus vote, will be impossible to ignore. Clinton is unlikely to come away with more pledged delegates even if FL and MI delegates are re-instituted on May 31st, but this will mean less than Obama supporters can Hope.
Calculating unpledged delegates is like counting chickens before they hatch. Come August, those who are now with Obama, but have grounds for being with Clinton (because their districts voted in her favor) , are likely to switch in her favor on the basis of the popular vote, the Caucus distorted delegate count, and her victory in 9 out of 11 swing states.
Unpledged delegates are no doubt aware, that if any Democrats defects to the Republicans in the General, they will almost certainly be Clinton Democrats. Obama supporters will simply turn out in lesser numbers in the general, if Clinton is the nominee, while Clinton supporters are likely to vote Republican, if Obama heads the ballot.
This hits the Democratic female, Latino, Asian, and Jewish votes particularly hard. Pro-Republican defects for women, Jews and Latinos, may be as high as 30%, and for Asians, as high as 60 %! For a voting block triple the African-American, and college Student population of the United States, any lower turnout of Blacks and Students, will be more than offset.
It is obvious to any clear thinking Democrat, that unpledged delegates must chose Clinton to head the Democratic ballot, or risk something worse than a McGovern collapse. If Latino’s and Asians vote for McCain, Obama will fail miserably in California, New York, Texas, and Florida. Even in his home state of Illinois, it will take only a moderate pro-Republican female vote, to hand the territory over to McCain. Unlike McGovern, who only lost 49 states in 1972, for the first time in American history, a Democratic Presidential candidate will lose all 50 states of the Union.
***
What stands in the way of Clinton securing the Nomination now in June, instead of August?
Axelrodian Extortion and Media Inspired Fear.
The cable news and newspapers have tossed everyone into a PC pressure-cooker. Careless Obama enthusiasm and outright Axelrodian propaganda, have made it Politically Incorrect for our Party, to exercise Rational and Independent Judgment. Unless the media stop serving this frame, unpledged delegates will have the luxury of independence only for a few hours in Denver Colorado, on August 26. This will leave the Democratic Party a little more than a month, to run a National campaign against John McCain. A significant disadvantage for Hillary Clinton, but a must for the unelectable Mr. Obama.
Obama desires as little scrutiny from the Republican media, as possible. If the Republicans can’t decide who to aim at, Obama is the sole beneficiary of this confusion. While in some ways a rational for going with Obama in August, recalling that Obama does not have the demographic wherewithal to win the General, whether the Republicans play Wright for four months vs one month, will only impact whether Obama goes the way of McGovern, or really does lose all 50 states.
42 responses so far
[…] Continue Reading […]
It is a republican dream that Obama would lose in a landslide in the general election, it simply won’t happen. It is more likely, as the economy is getting worse and isn’t likely to recover in time for McCain to win, that Obama will win easily.
Hilllary will drop out in the middle of June and support Obama and the whole party will sing Kum ba ya.
The Republicans can’t run far with Wright, and won’t, because they have their own wacko religious leadership they don’t want to talk about.
[…] Read the rest of this great post here […]
Jeff: I agree with your article and it sure seems the best analysis I’ve seen yet. No Obama anytime on any ticket. Hillary or McCain thats it. I want the heads of these puppets who endorsed Obama and those who put him in this race in the first place. I also want the heads of many pundits and journalists. We have started already and I think we’ll have a grand old time of it.
The one thing that Clinton Must Not Do is drop out. Fortunately she says that she will take the nomination battle to the convention if necessary.
Clinton or McCain. BO should be under investigation or indictment by the end of this year. The righteous Americans of both parties will see to that.
Hillary Clinton no matter what is going to the convention.
I believe that the DNC is banking on three things:
1. Obama’s financial supporters to help buy a McCain defeat
2. The Democrats along with enough Republicans and Independents who don’t want another 4 years of Republican leadership.
3. The most important- Hillary Clinton pulling her supporters behind Obama in the end.
Obama outspent Hillary in every state and still couldn’t get any distance from her.
The Republicans are going to run such an all out exposure campaign on Obama that will have the DNC peeing their pants.
Hillary would campaign for Obama but her supporters will still vote McCain. The DNC thinks this is an emotional threat but they couldn’t be more wrong. We won’t vote for a person that’s not qualified to be city clerk let alone President of the United States.
Hillary is going to have an uphill battle at that convention. If she doesn’t get the nomination I swear, watching the DNC fall apart when obama loses the general will be a pleasure.
lol……michigan and florida always mattered. hillary knew that all along, dumb ass obama didnt. simple math, the popular vote is the only math that counts in a true democracy. hillary knows this too, obama does not. obama has been out-foxed by a foxy lady. brilliant stategy…. cant wait for the convention when obama learns politics the hard way…
The DNC will be too busy celebrating all the gains in the house and senate to fall apart if Obama loses the general. The DNC is used to losing elections it is supposed to win, it would be business as usual.
I’d be more worried about your republican friends who you might have to put on suicide watch if Obama wins and he has large majorities in both houses.
Oh Noes, aktivist joodges??!?
I think it is funny even you guys are moving the finish line too. A couple weeks ago there was an entry and general agreement here that Hillary would have the nomination by early June at the latest. And anyone who thought otherwise was a stoopid obamabot. Now she isn’t going to manage to win it until August?? What happened??
http://www.stop-obama.org/?p=340
If Obama gets the nomination the DNC can ‘hope’ all they want that the party will unite behind him. It’s never going to happen, there are too many of us who will never come together and support this poor excuse for a presidential candidate. I don’t care what happens to the DNC, I have no allegiance to a party whose members one after the other have endorsed BO. Hillary needs to stay in and fight till the very end. I hope to God she does.
Jeff, is anyone there looking into how Obama is taking over the DNC and the Democratic party? Here’s a hint:
Hillary Clinton: The Other White Meat. How The DNC ate the Clinton Campaign.
http://www.liberalrapture.com/2008/05/was-fix-put-in-on-clinton.html
Anyone looking into why the Dems in Congress did nothing to stop Bush’s abuses of FISA? Why the did nothing about Bush’s abuses of power? About Bush’s increase of power to the Executive?
Hint: They want all that power for themselves under Obama.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
[…] Queen of Spain wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptCumulatively, Clinton won 700000 votes of yesterday’s 1254000 total, with Obama netting 553000. That’s equivalent to winning one North Carolina by 16%. Clinton has won the popular in this Primary, regardless of … Read the rest of this great post here […]
If all the racist people can keep raising the bar on Michelle’s poor, victimized husband then we can keep moving the finish line anywhere we want.
Hillary is going to the convention . You Obama assholes better believe it . She is going to clean his clock and she is the one who needs to be President. She smart she is tough and she is not a whinny ass quiter. She has forgotten more than Obama will ever know. all you men just can’t stand the thought of a womanbeing commander and cheif. Get over it. Like Jack Nicholson said, its a thrill to wake up in the morning and salute a woman. She would be the peoples President not just the snooty ass latte college crowds idea of one.
Sure you can.
I hope you can reconcile with yourself that Hillary is not going to fight all the way to the convention. She is fighting for party unity by getting FLA and MI seated, which she will claim is a win for the democratic party and democracy. See, we all can get along, awwww. Then, sometime shortly after June 3rd she will endorse Obama, but talk about the record breaking votes she got and how she fought to the end, etc. Then she will likely disappear for a good long time.
If you think she is still fighting to win this nomination, you haven’t been paying attention.
Ijane–you are so on target–my sentiments and outlook is a mirror of yours…. I won’t be voting for BO…he’s just not up to the task… McCain on the other hand will barely last the 4 years without doing too much if any damage against the dem. congress. The irony is that the DNC actually knows Hillary is most electable but is too chicken shit to do anything about it, and to watch the resultant end result will be a bittersweet pleasure…
Yesss Susan!
[…] Daily Kos wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptCumulatively, Clinton won 700000 votes of yesterday’s 1254000 total, with Obama netting 553000. That’s equivalent to winning one North Carolina by 16%. Clinton has won the popular in this Primary, regardless of … […]
Excellent analysis Jeff. You’re right on target!
I also agree Hillary must hang in to the Convention. I also believe that we should organize a group of pissed off citizens who are tired of the misogny, being disenfranchised, having an incompetent candidate shoved down our throats and being forced to watch our democracy go down the tubes all at the same time just so a few greedy power elite can grab power and control the people.
I am trying to build interest in people who can, to join in an effort to organize citizens to go to Denver and show our support for Hillary. I think it’s extremely important to make such a show because, if we don’t, the media and the DNC will play it like the Clinton supporters have come home to the party and are willing to support Obama.
I think we should make it very clear that we will not support an illigitimate candidate, who, along withe DNC, were willing to play fast and loose with the party rules in order to guarantee that he would block Hillary from a landslide victory.
If Hillary is willing to to the Convention on principle, knowing that she may well be cheated out of the nomination because these guys are arrogant to believe they can get away with, then I say we call them on their bluff and bring a coalition of citizens who are willing to fight along side Hillary in defying their vicious grab for power.
Any of you guys interested?
[…] Read the rest of this great post here […]
Oh man not the popular vote argument again. The one where Hillary only has the lead if you leave out IA, NV, ME, and WA? Nice cherry picking Jeff.
Clinton has already lost the primary.
Polll of polls. McCain creams Obama, loses to Clinton.
Obama Hacky Sack Cult continues to smoke the funny stuf.
McCain vs Obama
http://tinyurl.com/4zxfjx
McCain vs Clinton
http://tinyurl.com/4p8c52
Media leghumpig 24/7 and snotty unwarranted triumphalism isn’t helping the Obama Hacky Sack Cult in swing states.
Quinnipiac Poll
http://tinyurl.com/6c67ur
May 22, 2008 - McCain Leads Obama In Two Of Three Key Swing States, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds;
Clinton Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania —
FLORIDA: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 45 - Obama 41;
OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 44 - Obama 40:
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 50 - McCain 37; Obama 46 - McCain 40
HillDawg,
I seem to remember not so long ago the dems having this very same fight against the repubilcans in Florida during the 2000 recount. It was all about the “popular vote” and that Al Gore was the true winner. The Supreme Court usurped the will of the people then, now it’s the DNC. What irony!
If Al Gore had the fire, passion and steely resolve that Hillary is now exhibiting, he may well have prevailed. You guys should take note on what it means to be a “figher” in the truest sense, because Hillary is Muhammed Ali in this fight and she floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee!
This primary was brokered by the DNC power elite to anoint Obama and they gamed the system every step of the way to ensure they got what they wanted.
This isn’t about Hillary, this is about standing up for the very principle this country was founded - one man/woman - one vote.
for the DNC and BO to willinging and deliberately disenfranchise 2.5 million voters for the sake of winning, is the height of hypocrisy and destroys any legitimacy he would have as the nominee.
Frankly, you underestimate what Hillary said in her speech yesterday in Florida. She connected with these people and understood how they felt about being disenfranchised. BO doesn’t give a shit. All he cares about is the pomp and circumstance of being “the president”.
Come August, when Hillary takes this fight to the floor, the American people will be witness to one of the most extraordinary and patriotic fights in American history by the first viable female candidate for president. A woman standing up for Americans and their most precious right - their vote. For doing this alone, Hillary has earned the right to be our president.
I expect, based on the mood of the voters right now, millions of them will not be voting for a candidate who wants to be our president but was willing to disenfranchise 2.5 millions voters in order to get it. This is the last person I would trust to stand up for American principles and for the American people.
Shame on him and shame on those who would support such a person.
And when she concedes in Juna and endorses Obama and tells you what a terrible choice McCain is, what will you do?
Oh, and it was Hillary that denied Michigan in their last attempt to get seated, she didn’t care about their vote unless it brought enough delegates to matter. She doesn’t care about the thousands of voters who stayed home either. She also apparantly doesn’t care about voters in the caucus states she refuses to count in her “I have the most popular votes” rhetoric. And she didn’t care about the MI and FLA voters in January.
She knows to give Dems the greatest chance to win the GE in November the issue needs to be settled, and now that the race is over she knows she can settle it fair. She has nothing to gain by fighting tooth and nail for a few delegates in a state where half the candidates weren’t on the ballot. She knows with Obama in the White house she has a chance to get all those jobs to NY she promised instead of blaming Bush for her failures.
Obama will be at the white house when rivers flow backwards. My nearly blind cat has a better chance than does Obama.
Obama’s essential unelectability is becoming increasingly evident, and will be obvious to all except the severely suicide prone.
The GE is not an affirmative action exercise.
Heard it all before, and nobody could beat Hillary or Giuliani either.
Do you have any evidence of this unelectability besides your likely bias and uneducated opinion and your blind cat(who, by the way has run a terrible campaign because I didn’t even know it was running)? He seems to be consistantly gaining in the polls against Hillary and McCain. Hillary has actually lost support of every demographic except women over 50.
The Florida poll you linked actually showed Obama gaining ground on McCain to the point where it is almost a virtual tie. And this is is a state where according to Susan they hate Obama. They must really love McCain there!
Ahndruw,
Well, since you can see into the future and know exactly what the outcome is going to be at the Convention, please do tell me, whether or not I am going to win with the lotto tickets I bought yesterday?!
She cared enough about michigan to put her name on the ballot.Did BO do it HEll NO!
Ahndruw What ya going to do if we steal it? You and yours going to go out in the streets and commit murder and mahem? Thats the threats I’m hearing. Bloody riots! Do you think you can shove that useless empty suit african muslim asshole down our throats. I reject you and your empty threats. It will be a sad day in america when that lieing scurilous no experience bum becomes our President. I’d vote for a dog walking down the street first.
Susan,
you need a napkin to wipe some of that foam off your mouth.
Only 254 voters in our precinct, 200 are my relatives, if Obama heads ticket McCain will get all of them, no way Obama carries any of the South….
odo,
If the DNC acts in the same way the Supreme Court did and usurps the will of the people, he will not win in the GE.
Millions of supporters for HIllary are not willing to vote for an unqualified, dilitante who would become our country’s worst nightmare if the coup also includes the complicty of the republican party elite (which I highly doubt).
What the DNC assholes, who hatched this ridiculous plan, weren’t counting on was Hillary calling their bluff and hanging in the race and taking it to the Convention.
One way or the other, he’s toast. So, get a jump on it, and start feeling sorry for yourself now.
It’s Hillary or McCain. But it will never be Obama.
Oh my,
Well, there are about 1 million people in my area and they will probably support Obama 4-1. So, let’s see, between your precinct and my area that’s 200, 254 for McCain, 800,000 for Obama.
Next?
Ahndruw wrote:
“Oh, and it was Hillary that denied Michigan in their last attempt to get seated, she didn’t care about their vote unless it brought enough delegates to matter.”
What an idiotic conclusion to a patently propagandist premise.
The proposal rejected by Clinton would have given Obama nearly as many delegates from Michigan as was to be awared to Clinton from that state - a proposal which was catagorically absurd, seing as Obama voluntarily removed his name from the ballot in Michigan - a fact that is always conveniently left out of the media circles as well as Obama’s own campaign rhetoric.
He deserves to awarded ZERO delegates from Michigan, because NOBODY FUCKING VOTED FOR HIM ASSHOLE.
If you are interested in a fair proposal, then split the Michigan delegates between Clinton and simply independent (free to choose either Clinton or Obama) along the proportion of votes for Clinton vs. votes not for Clinton (55:45).
I read somewhere that D. Brazille is the one who convinced Gore to stop fighting the recount. She’s probably now realizing Hillary’s made of sterner stuff!!
I wonder if Gore is now saying “If only…”
Kathleen: “Millions of supporters for HIllary are not willing to vote for an unqualified, dilitante who would become our country’s worst nightmare if the coup also includes the complicty of the republican party elite (which I highly doubt). ”
Do you actually think that the small number of wingnuts that spew their hatred on this site equate to “Millions” who are not willing to support the eventual nominee of their party?
Don’t presume to speak for millions of other voters–not all of the people in this country are as whacked as you all here.
Actually, I guess Rob a “fair” solution would be a revote in Michigan with all the contestants on the ballot. And Obama is ahead in the polls vs Hillary in MI the last poll I saw. I thought they were being generous giving Hillary +10 delegates out of MI. At this point she will probably end up with less than that.
The level of your communication has a lot to be desired, but I understand some people need to resort to name calling when they have no other point to make and find themselves lacking intellectually.
Ahndruw wrote:
“Actually, I guess Rob a “fair” solution would be a revote in Michigan with all the contestants on the ballot.”
You guess wrong.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Michigan Primary as it stands. For extremely obvious reasons, a revote in either Michigan or Florida would be absurd.
I stand by what I said would be fair: grant Clinton 56% of the pledged delegates for Michigan (the votes she earned), and free the remainder of Michigan’s delegates to vote as they see fit (as per Michigan state law). Tally Florida as is.
Nobody outside of a Hillary supporter or Obama hater would find that fair and it will never happen. So, was a revote always absurd or just now that it is late in the process, because Hillary seemed to like the idea?
So counting an election with no official campaigning, with only half the contestants on the ballot, and all voting being done under the assumption it wouldn’t be counted is fair, nice.
Most people are well aware of the fact that Obama took his name off the ballot voluntarily, along with three other candidates. And that is a fact most people coveniently forget to mention, like you.
“Nobody outside of a Hillary supporter or Obama hater would find that fair and it will never happen. So, was a revote always absurd or just now that it is late in the process, because Hillary seemed to like the idea?”
blah blah blah…Hillary tried to get a re- vote in Michigan but obama fought it and that’s why it never happened and will never happen. The reason he fought a re-vote so hard is because between Edwards, Biden, Richardson, the “uncommitted” protest votes and Obama, it was calculated that the percentage of votes Obama would have received had his name been on the ballot was only 23%. Obama had no chance winning the Michigan primary in January and he has no chance winning a re-vote.
IJane, I agree with your comment completely. BO and his corrupt band of puppeteers have done true harm to the Democratic Party, have exposed the DNC to be completely and, yet, ironically fearful of African Americans, and are willing to be flushed down the commode in November rather than admit that BO is a joke. I mean this man shouldn’t be running anything, other than giving sermons in a church. Perhaps he’ll be the preacher at Trinity Church after November 2008. The DNC is in a hole so deep, they probably do see China!